Observatory
What is happening in the economy right now?
A sourced scorecard of growth, prices, labor, and rates — every reading dated and ranked against its own history.
Economic intelligence platform
From macroeconomic forces to household outcomes.
Inflation, interest rates, employment, and housing shape every paycheck, mortgage, and grocery bill. EconOS traces those forces from the headline numbers down to what they mean for households, workers, and regions — with sourced data, visible uncertainty, and methods you can check.
Current conditions
- Inflation (CPI, YoY)
- 3.5%Jun 2026
- Unemployment rate
- 4.2%Jun 2026
- 30-year mortgage rate
- 6.55%Jul 16, 2026
- Payroll change (MoM)
- +57KJun 2026
What EconOS answers
Five layers, each built around a question people actually ask about the economy — from what is happening now to what would happen if policy changed.
Impact
What do these forces mean for a household budget?
Calculators that translate inflation and mortgage rates into purchasing power, monthly payments, and affordability.
Research Lab
How do economic forces actually relate to each other?
Documented historical associations — wages and prices, vacancies and unemployment — with methods shown and causal claims withheld.
Forecast Center
Where might key indicators go next?
Backtested statistical forecasts published with uncertainty bands and a track record — never a point estimate alone.
Transmission Engine
If the Fed moves, what happens downstream?
An interactive model of how policy-rate changes propagate through mortgages, credit, spending, and employment over time.
The race that decides living standards
Inflation vs. wage growth since 2016
12-month percent change in consumer prices and average hourly earnings · % YoY
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (CPIAUCSL, CES0500000003) · Jan 2016–Jun 2026
When the wage line runs above the price line, the average paycheck gains purchasing power; when the lines cross the other way, workers fall behind even as nominal pay rises. The gap between these two series — not either one alone — is what determines whether a typical worker is getting ahead, which is why EconOS always shows them together.
How we work
- Sourced data
- Every figure links to its originating agency and series ID. Nothing renders without provenance.
- Visible uncertainty
- Forecasts ship with intervals and a public track record, never a bare point estimate.
- No causal overreach
- Historical associations are labeled as associations. Causal claims require causal evidence.
- Reproducible pipelines
- Data snapshots, transformations, and formulas are versioned and documented end to end.
Full sources, licenses, and known limitations are documented on the Data & Methods page.
About EconOS
EconOS is built by Jean-Luc Saint-Fleur, an economist by training and a data & analytics professional who builds data products. The platform is open source, and every page is generated from committed, validated data snapshots.