Economic overview

Definition. Quarter-over-quarter growth in inflation-adjusted output, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate, as published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

How to read it. Readings near 2% are close to the U.S. long-run trend; quarterly prints are volatile and revised, so the direction over several quarters matters more than any single number.

Definition. Twelve-month percent change in the Federal Reserve's index of real output from manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities.

How to read it. Industry is a narrow but cyclically sensitive slice of the economy; growth near zero signals a flat goods sector even while services keep expanding.

Definition. Twelve-month percent change in nominal retail and food-services sales. Not adjusted for inflation.

How to read it. Because sales are measured in current dollars, part of any increase is higher prices — compare against CPI inflation to judge real spending growth.

Definition. University of Michigan index of how households assess their finances, buying conditions, and the economy (1966:Q1 = 100).

How to read it. Sentiment can stay depressed on price levels and borrowing costs even when the labor market is firm, so read it alongside — not instead of — the hard data.

Definition. Twelve-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, covering the full basket of goods and services.

How to read it. The Federal Reserve's price-stability goal corresponds to roughly 2% inflation; whether a move up or down is welcome depends on why prices are changing.

Definition. Twelve-month percent change in the CPI excluding food and energy, whose prices swing with weather and world markets.

How to read it. Core inflation is a cleaner read on the underlying trend; headline inflation tends to converge toward it once food and energy shocks pass through.

Definition. Twelve-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all private-sector employees, from the BLS establishment survey.

How to read it. Nominal wage growth raises living standards only when it outpaces inflation; the real-wage card next to this one makes that comparison explicit.

Definition. Average-hourly-earnings growth adjusted for CPI inflation using the exact ratio form ((1 + wage growth) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1). Computed by EconOS from the BLS earnings and CPI series.

How to read it. Positive readings mean the average paycheck buys more than a year ago; even small negative readings compound into lost purchasing power if they persist.

Definition. Share of the civilian labor force that is jobless, available to work, and actively searched for work in the prior four weeks (U-3).

How to read it. Readings near 4% have historically indicated a labor market close to full employment; sustained rises of half a point or more have accompanied every postwar recession.

Definition. Month-over-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, from the BLS survey of employers.

How to read it. Monthly gains of roughly 80–100 thousand are about what absorbs labor-force growth; single months are noisy and revised twice, so watch the three-month pace.

Definition. Share of the civilian population aged 16 and over that is either working or actively looking for work.

How to read it. Participation drifts with demographics, but cyclical declines can flatter the unemployment rate — fewer people counted as searching means fewer counted as unemployed.

Definition. Job openings on the last business day of the month, from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

How to read it. Openings measure labor demand; set against the number of unemployed people, a ratio near one opening per job seeker marks a roughly balanced market.

Definition. Monthly average of the effective federal funds rate — the overnight interbank rate the Federal Reserve steers as its primary policy instrument.

How to read it. What matters for the economy is the real policy rate — nominal minus expected inflation — which is what actually restrains or stimulates demand.

Definition. Ten-year Treasury yield minus the two-year yield, in percentage points, at daily frequency.

How to read it. An inverted (negative) curve has preceded most postwar recessions, but the lead time ranges from months to years and inversions can unwind without a downturn.

Definition. Average contract rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, from Freddie Mac's weekly survey of lenders.

How to read it. Mortgage rates track long-term Treasury yields plus a spread; a single percentage point moves the monthly payment on a typical home by hundreds of dollars.

Definition. New privately owned housing units on which construction started, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

How to read it. Starts are the supply pipeline for housing; monthly readings swing widely with weather and multifamily projects, so the trend matters more than any single month.