What does economic theory say — and does the data agree?
Research
Short, reproducible modules that test textbook relationships against the platform's own data snapshots. Every number is computed at build time; every module says what it cannot claim.
Have wages kept up with prices?
Real wages
Year-over-year average hourly earnings deflated by CPI-U, plus a cumulative real wage index since 2006.
Real wage growth is +0.1% year over year — nominal gains and inflation are nearly offsetting.
Do recessions destroy jobs one-for-one with output?
Okun's law
Quarterly change in the unemployment rate regressed on real GDP growth (SAAR), 1960 to present.
Okun coefficient -0.12 (R² 0.55): growth near 3.0% SAAR has historically held unemployment steady.
How efficiently does the labor market match workers to jobs?
The Beveridge curve
Vacancy rate (openings ÷ (payrolls + openings)) against the unemployment rate, monthly since 2001, colored by period.
Latest point: vacancy rate 4.6% at 4.3% unemployment — down the curve from the 2022 extreme.
How do policy rates reach the housing market?
Rate transmission
OLS of 12-month mortgage-rate changes on policy-rate changes, then lagged housing-activity responses, since 1990.
About 35% of a 12-month policy-rate change has historically appeared in the 30-year mortgage rate (R² 0.34).
How every module is structured
Each module follows the same template, with these as its section headings, in this order:
Question → Theory → Data → Method → Findings → Uncertainty → Limitations → Reproduce
The question is stated up front; theory says what a textbook predicts; data and method say exactly which series and calculations are used; findings report computed numbers with their dates; uncertainty and limitations say what the analysis cannot support; and reproduce points at the code so the result can be checked.