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EconOS

What does it cost to put a roof over your head?

Housing

Mortgage rates, home prices, and construction — combined into a single affordability measure that asks whether a median-income family can actually buy the median home.

30-year mortgage rate

6.55%

Increased+0.06 pp6.49% prior week

39th percentile of all weekly readings since 1971

Week of Jul 16, 2026

What is this?

Definition. Average rate on a 30-year fixed conventional mortgage from Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

How to read it. The price of borrowing for the standard American home loan. A one-point move changes the monthly payment on a typical loan by roughly 9–12% — the calculator below makes this concrete.

Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey) via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) · Latest: Jul 16, 2026

Median home price

$403,200quarterly

Decreased-4.7% YoY$412,300 in Q4 2025

Not quality-adjusted: shifts in which homes sell move this number

Q1 2026

What is this?

Definition. Median sales price of houses sold in the United States (Census/HUD), quarterly, not seasonally adjusted for mix.

How to read it. Half of homes sold cost more, half less. Because it tracks whatever happens to sell, a quarter heavy in luxury or starter homes moves the median without any underlying price change — check it against Case-Shiller.

U.S. Census Bureau / HUD via FRED (MSPUS) · Latest: Q1 2026

Case-Shiller price growth

0.8% YoY

Increased+0.1 pp0.7% in Mar 2026

Repeat-sales method: same-home price changes, immune to sales-mix shifts

Apr 2026

What is this?

Definition. Year-over-year change in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which tracks repeat sales of the same homes.

How to read it. The cleaner read on price appreciation. When it diverges from the median price, the median is being moved by which homes are selling, not by what homes are worth.

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller) via FRED (CSUSHPINSA) · Latest: Apr 2026

Housing starts

1,427thousand, SAAR

Increased+228k1,199k in May 2026

48th percentile of all readings since 1959

Jun 2026

What is this?

Definition. New privately-owned housing units on which construction began, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

How to read it. The supply pipeline. Chronic underbuilding relative to household formation is the structural force behind the affordability squeeze — rates and prices are the cyclical ones.

U.S. Census Bureau / HUD via FRED (HOUST) · Latest: Jun 2026

Housing Affordability Index

EconOS Housing Affordability Index

120

100 = a median-income family exactly affords the median home. Above 100 means the median family has more income than that benchmark requires.

Inputs & assumptions

  • Median home price $403,200 (Q1 2026)
  • Median family income $105,800 2024 vintage, the latest published; incomes report with a long lag
  • Mortgage rate 6.55% (latest weekly)
  • 20% down payment, 30-year fixed-rate loan
  • 28% front-end ratio (payment ≤ 28% of gross income)
  • Principal & interest only — no taxes, insurance, or PMI

Housing Affordability Index, 2000–present

Quarterly; quarter-average mortgage rate, annual income carried across its year · index (100 = exactly affordable)

EconOS calculation from Census/HUD, Freddie Mac, and Census income data via FRED · Jan 2000Jan 2026

An index of 100 means the median family, putting 20% down at the going rate, would spend exactly 28% of gross income on principal and interest for the median home — the conventional lending threshold. The two modern affordability peaks bracket today’s reading: in Q4 2012, with prices still depressed after the crash, the index reached 163; in Q1 2021, record-low mortgage rates pushed it to 175 even as prices surged. The squeeze came when rates jumped while prices held: the index bottomed at 95 in Q4 2022 — the least affordable quarter in this window. Today’s 120 sits between those extremes: back above the affordability line, but far below the post-crash and pandemic-era peaks. Recent quarters reuse the 2024 income vintage, so they will be revised once newer income data publishes.

30-year fixed mortgage rate

Weekly, since 2000 · %

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) · Jan 2000Jul 2026

Housing starts vs. building permits

Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate, since 2000 · thousand, SAAR

U.S. Census Bureau and HUD via FRED (HOUST, PERMIT) · Jan 2000Jun 2026

New single-family home sales

Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate, since 2000 · thousand, SAAR

U.S. Census Bureau and HUD via FRED (HSN1F) · Jan 2000May 2026

What would the payment be?

Defaults are today’s numbers: the latest median sales price and this week’s average 30-year rate. Adjust any input — the sensitivity row shows how much a single percentage point of rate moves the payment.

Median price, Q1 2026

$80,600 down

30-year average, week of Jul 16, 2026

Fixed rate, fully amortizing

Monthly payment (P&I)
$2,048
On a $322,400 loan at 6.55% over 30 years.
Total interest over the loan
$415,024
All payments beyond repaying the principal, across 360 months.
Income required (28% rule)
$87,789
Annual gross income at which this payment is 28% of a month’s pay.

Payment sensitivity to the rate

Monthly principal and interest payment at one percentage point below the chosen rate, at the chosen rate, and one percentage point above it
ScenarioRateMonthly P&I
−1 pp5.55%$1,841
Current6.55%$2,048
+1 pp7.55%$2,265

Assumptions. Principal and interest only — excludes property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance (typically required below 20% down), HOA dues, and closing costs, all of which raise the true monthly cost. Fixed rate, fully amortizing, no points or extra payments. The 28% front-end ratio is a conventional lending guideline, not financial advice. Inputs are clamped to $50,000$10,000,000, 095% down, and 0.115% rates.

Method & limitations

The affordability index is an EconOS calculation, documented in our methodology notes: the mortgage payment on the median home (20% down, 30-year fixed at the prevailing rate, principal and interest only) is compared with 28% of median family income, and the ratio is scaled so 100 means exactly affordable. Historical values use each quarter’s average weekly mortgage rate and carry annual income across that year’s four quarters; quarters after the latest income vintage (2024) reuse that vintage and are revised when new data lands. The headline value mixes observation dates by necessity — quarterly prices, weekly rates, annual incomes — and each card above shows its own date.

What these measures do not capture: property taxes, homeowners insurance (a rapidly growing cost in much of the country), mortgage insurance for buyers below 20% down, maintenance, and closing costs — all excluded from the payment, so the index overstates affordability in absolute terms even as its movement over time remains informative. The median sales price is not quality-adjusted and shifts with the mix of homes sold, which is why Case-Shiller’s repeat-sales index is shown alongside it. National figures average over enormous regional variation — the affordability picture in Cleveland and coastal California are different markets entirely.

The index also describes only the buy side of housing. Renters — roughly a third of households, and disproportionately the households for whom affordability binds hardest — are covered by the rent measures on the Inflation page. And the 28% front-end convention is a lending rule of thumb, not a statement about what families can genuinely sustain at different income levels.